2022 September 29th EST Daily Memorandum
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Table of Content
Executive Summary - prior day as the anchor
Today at Close - Higher Level Overview & Analysis Based on Our Quantitative Indicators for selected Indexes & Indicator heat charts
Expectations & Analysis for Tomorrow in Detail
The thesis of interest rate hikes will continue to govern trades from the current to earlier next year. The highest projected terminal rate is expected to be around 4.51 - 4.70%. As a result, rising rate hike expectations continue to drive the underlying credit market-related indexes. The general thesis for the remaining year is outlined in the following article: Is Volcker Shock Coming Back?
We see significant downside risk to the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones Industrial Average and remain bullish on the credit market and reverse index as indicated in the 2022 September 27th EST Daily Memorandum for the long term. The specific time of the final finale is unclear. But we are on the verge of fermenting the last drop. It is very likely we will have the drop in early 2023 - 2024 (based on past ranked volatility), we are currently still in 2022, which means might turn into a long bear market rebound. For tomorrow's setup:
1- hour confirmation has been canceled in today's pre-market. At close, the downward momentum on all indexes was reduced. QQQ regained support, and SPX + DJI closed below the resistance. Though the TMV regained Wednesday's level, TMV indicators have worsened with a confirmed money outflow expansion on the daily chart. USDCNY has confirmed the pivot.