2022 September 27th EST Daily Memorandum
Updated: Sep 30, 2022
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Table of Content
Executive Summary - prior day as the anchor
Today at Close - Higher Level Overview & Analysis Based on Our Quantitative Indicators for selected Indexes & Indicator heat charts
Expectation & Analysis for tomorrow in detail
The thesis of interest rate hikes will continue to govern trades from the current to earlier next year. The highest projected terminal rate is expected to be around 4.51 - 4.70%. As a result, rising rate hike expectations continue to drive the underlying credit market-related indexes. The general thesis for the remaining year is outlined in the following article: Is Volcker Shock Coming Back?
We see significant downside risk to the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones Industrial Average and remain bullish on the credit market and reverse index as indicated in the 2022 September 26th EST Daily Memorandum. The specific time of the final finale is unclear. But we are on the verge of fermenting the last drop. For tomorrow's setup:
We expect the trend still follow the major narrative but may experience fluctuations and pullback in shorter periods such as 5 min and 1 min charts. If the pullback deepens, the likelihood of turning the pullback into a rebound may arise during the trade session. Staying cautious, it is likely we will confirm the larger trend in session tomorrow.
Today at Close
- tive: trending negative - tive expansion: trending negative with expanding in average trend - tive reduction: trending negative but with a reduction in average trend
- tive confirmation: confirm the negative trend
flat: in an unclear and horizontal fluctuation
pivot: a potential pivot of the current trend
+ tive: trending positive
+ tive expansion: trending positive with expanding in average trend
+ tive reduction: trending positive but with a reduction in average trend
+ tive confirmation: confirm the positive trend
The long-term trend has not changed 2022 September 26th EST Daily Memorandum. In the shorter time frame, we see a potential pivot. However, the pivot is not confirmed. $SPX is close below the daily resistance. Given the conflicting indicators on the 15m and 1-hour charts, the major trend still governs.