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Table of Content

1. Current Thesis

2. Executive Summary - prior day as the anchor

3. Today at Close - Higher Level Overview & Analysis Based on Our Quantitative Indicators for selected Indexes & Indicator heat charts

4. Expectations & Analysis for Tomorrow in Detail

Current Thesis

The thesis of interest rate hikes will continue to govern trades from the current to earlier next year. The highest projected terminal rate is expected to be around 4.51 - 4.70%. As a result, rising rate hike expectations continue to drive the underlying credit market-related indexes. The general thesis for the remaining year is outlined in the following article: Is Volcker Shock Coming Back?

Executive Summary

We see significant downside risk to the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones Industrial Average and remain bullish on the credit market and reverse index as indicated in the 2022 September 27th EST Daily Memorandum for the long term. The specific time of the final finale is unclear. But we are on the verge of fermenting the last drop. It is very likely we are fermenting the drop in early 2023 - 2024 (based on past ranked volatility), we are currently still in 2022, which means might turn into a long bear market rebound. For tomorrow's setup:

There is a confirmation of the equity market pullback. The confirmed correction of the credit market will continue to govern the equity correction in a very short time window such as 15min to 1-hour charts. If this can turn into a long bear market rally still needs confirmation. The BOE alone may not create necessary stimuli and fundamental change from the world's perspective in the longer term (weeks).

Today at Close

Legend

SPX