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2022 September 28th EST Daily Memorandum

Updated: Sep 29, 2022

Disclaimer:

Nothing contained in the following content constitutes an offer, solicitation, or recommendation regarding any investment management product or service, or the offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security; The following content is purely for information only and is based on information available at the time it was created. It does not take your financial situation or goals into consideration, and may not be suited for you.


Table of Content
  1. Current Thesis

  2. Executive Summary - prior day as the anchor

  3. Today at Close - Higher Level Overview & Analysis Based on Our Quantitative Indicators for selected Indexes & Indicator heat charts

  4. Expectations & Analysis for Tomorrow in Detail

Current Thesis

The thesis of interest rate hikes will continue to govern trades from the current to earlier next year. The highest projected terminal rate is expected to be around 4.51 - 4.70%. As a result, rising rate hike expectations continue to drive the underlying credit market-related indexes. The general thesis for the remaining year is outlined in the following article: Is Volcker Shock Coming Back?


Executive Summary

We see significant downside risk to the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones Industrial Average and remain bullish on the credit market and reverse index as indicated in the 2022 September 27th EST Daily Memorandum for the long term. The specific time of the final finale is unclear. But we are on the verge of fermenting the last drop. It is very likely we are fermenting the drop in early 2023 - 2024 (based on past ranked volatility), we are currently still in 2022, which means might turn into a long bear market rebound. For tomorrow's setup:


There is a confirmation of the equity market pullback. The confirmed correction of the credit market will continue to govern the equity correction in a very short time window such as 15min to 1-hour charts. If this can turn into a long bear market rally still needs confirmation. The BOE alone may not create necessary stimuli and fundamental change from the world's perspective in the longer term (weeks).



Today at Close

Legend

- tive: trending negative - tive expansion: trending negative with expanding in average trend - tive reduction: trending negative but with a reduction in average trend

- tive confirmation: confirm the negative trend

flat: in an unclear and horizontal fluctuation

pivot: a potential pivot of the current trend

+ tive: trending positive

+ tive expansion: trending positive with expanding in average trend

+ tive reduction: trending positive but with a reduction in average trend

+ tive confirmation: confirm the positive trend


SPX

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