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2022 September 30th EST Daily Memorandum

Updated: Oct 2, 2022

Disclaimer:

Nothing contained in the following content constitutes an offer, solicitation, or recommendation regarding any investment management product or service, or the offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security; The following content is purely for information only and is based on information available at the time it was created. It does not take your financial situation or goals into consideration, and may not be suited for you.


Table of Content
  1. Current Thesis

  2. Executive Summary - prior day as the anchor

  3. Today at Close - Higher Level Overview & Analysis Based on Our Quantitative Indicators for selected Indexes & Indicator heat charts

  4. Expectations & Analysis for Tomorrow in Detail

Current Thesis

The thesis of interest rate hikes will continue to govern trades from the current to earlier next year. The highest projected terminal rate is expected to be around 4.51 - 4.70%. As a result, rising rate hike expectations continue to drive the underlying credit market-related indexes. The general thesis for the remaining year is outlined in the following article: Is Volcker Shock Coming Back?


Executive Summary

We see significant downside risk to the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones Industrial Average and remain bullish on the credit market and reverse index as indicated in the 2022 September 27th EST Daily Memorandum for the long term. The time of the final finale may have started fermenting early. All indexes are closed at new month's lows with all indicators expanding negative. The trend has been confirmed on the monthly chart and we are potentially resetting the gain since 2010. For next week's setup:


We may or may not experience a pullback in a short time frame such as 5 m to 15m charts with the potential of a 4-hour chart temporary rally (chance is dim, but nothing is 100%, keep monitoring how data evolves). However, the larger monthly trend has technically been confirmed in addition to the fundamentals.

 

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